Should I accept a counter-offer when I resign?

I've watched hundreds of counter-offer scenarios play out. The pattern is almost identical every time. Candidate gives notice. Employer panics. Within 48 hours, candidate is offered a 15-25% pay rise, sometimes a new title, vague promise of more interesting work. Candidate, suddenly feeling valued for the first time in years, accepts and stays.

Six to nine months later, the same candidate is back in the market — because the underlying reasons they were leaving were never about money, and now their employer trusts them less because they were a flight risk. The data is consistent across years and industries: roughly 70-80% of candidates who accept a counter-offer leave within 12 months anyway.

Three exceptions where staying can work. First, if you only started looking because of one specific issue (pay, a single difficult colleague, a project that's ending), and the counter-offer genuinely fixes that issue. Second, if you've been undervalued for years through your own under-asking, and the counter-offer corrects that, and you can have a frank conversation with your manager about what changes. Third, if the new role has actually changed since you accepted (the team you were joining has restructured, the manager who hired you has left).

Outside of those: decline politely and stick with the move. The counter-offer is your employer's panic response, not a strategic correction of how they value you. The promised promotion or change in scope frequently doesn't materialise. The relationship is permanently shifted — you've shown you're prepared to leave, and they'll bear that in mind during the next round of cuts.

The script for declining: 'I appreciate the offer, but I've made my decision. The new role is the right move for where I want to take my career. I want to leave on good terms and hand over cleanly.' Don't elaborate. Don't get drawn into 'what could we have done.' The cleaner the exit, the better the reference, and the more options you have if the new role doesn't work out.